Top two pair on scary flop

[Fadook]

Should probably have 3-bet preflop, though MP seemed a bit tight. CO is awful, 85/10.85/1.73. I don't think he's into crazy bluffing, but he'll stay in with any piece of the board and bet marginal hands too frequently.

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font>

Would this be a situation to call and wait for a safe turn, given that there are a lot of turn cards I'm not going to be happy to see?

[TheWunderkind]

I just raise&gt; its simple and its working&gt; i stopped messing around waiting for Turn raises only to suspect to win 1 more sb or BB never realizing what its really costing me(its sometimes still good though but i overused it)...and the Board is freaking drawy here so raise for value

[bassLine]

The problem with waiting for the turn is that there is no guarantee a bet will be made.
You are out of position with a strong hand. I think you should start putting more money into the pot asap.

Villain raised PF and is making a Cbet with whatever holding he happens to have.

You are crushing his range right now unless he has a set or KT off course.

edit: Your hand has 70% equity vs a tight (10%hands: 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo) Pf raise.

[imitation]

Make the raise on the flop get the money in there because there's no promise it will get bet again on the turn.

[nickg1532]

raise it up

[jstill]

Im fine with waiting for the turn to raise a non K T or spade, if MP has an underpair its not like hes calling a raise anyways besides TT, and if MP checks CO will probably bet KQ KJ pretty often and u can raise then anyways.

In practice I raise the flop most of the time, but Im not sure theres a huge difference between the lines, both seem fine to me. By waiting we dont get ourselves in the place where we raised the flop and get cr'd on the worse turn card ever, not sure if that outweighs missing out on 2 sbs on the flop (or MP 3betting AJ QJ AK AT so we can cap or raise the turn), but the change in equity we allow to occur by waiting is a pretty large factor worth considering.

[SuperUberBob]

3-bet preflop, 3-bet flop.

[Fadook]

[ QUOTE ]
Im fine with waiting for the turn to raise a non K T or spade, if MP has an underpair its not like hes calling a raise anyways besides TT, and if MP checks CO will probably bet KQ KJ pretty often and u can raise then anyways.

In practice I raise the flop most of the time, but Im not sure theres a huge difference between the lines, both seem fine to me. By waiting we dont get ourselves in the place where we raised the flop and get cr'd on the worse turn card ever, not sure if that outweighs missing out on 2 sbs on the flop (or MP 3betting AJ QJ AK AT so we can cap or raise the turn), but the change in equity we allow to occur by waiting is a pretty large factor worth considering.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was hoping to get at with posting this hand. I'm not thinking of calling to slowplay or because I'm afraid I'm behind; I'm wondering if the number of turn cards that can bust my hand leads to this being a "call and wait for a safe turn card" situation.

That said, I did some number crunching. Assume that one of these guys is on a flush draw, and the other has a gutshot, meaning they collectively have 12 outs against me. There is then a 39% chance of my hand being best by the river UI, and it's even larger if the gutshot draw misses the turn and folds. My equity edge is even greater than that given that I have 4 outs to a full house. So I think raising is the better play. Please point out any flaws in my reasoning.

[sweetjazz]

You can usually 3bet preflop unless MP is VERY tight.

As played, you should 3bet the flop. Waiting for the turn to raise would be a good play with position, because you can guarantee at least one bet going in on the turn. Out of position, you should just go ahead and get the money in now while you're ahead and lead out a blank turn. If a scare card hits the turn, you have to make a judgment what to do, but often gritting your teeth and keeping the lead is the right thing to do.

[jstill]

oh man i duno why i thought we were in position here, i always cr this flop.

i 3bet pre suited usually and often offsuit vs a normal MP stealer not sure about it tho?