Snow or draw? 2/4, 2-7

[Biggle10]

CO is an unknown. Never seen him before.

Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit ($2/$4) (converter)

SB ($82), Seat 3
BB ($81), Seat 4
Hero ($88), Seat 5
MP ($224), Seat 6
CO ($28), Seat 1
Button ($96), Seat 2

Button at Seat 2.
SB posts $1. BB posts $2.

Hand: [2h Tc As 3h 8h]

Round 1: (1.50 SB)

<font color="red">Hero raises. </font><font color="#666666">MP folds. </font><font color="green">CO calls. </font><font color="#666666">Button folds. </font><font color="#666666">SB folds. </font><font color="#666666">BB folds. </font>
Hero discards Tc As. CO takes 2.

Hand: [2h 3h 8h 8c 6s]

Round 2: (5.50 SB)

<font color="red">Hero bets. </font><font color="green">CO calls. </font>
Hero discards 8h. CO takes 1.

Hand: [2h 3h 8c 6s 2d]

Round 3: (3.75 BB)

<font color="red">Hero bets. </font><font color="green">CO calls. </font>
Hero stands pat?

[*TT*]

A little quote from SSII

[ QUOTE ]
2 card draws that include an 8 can be included from late positions only. Fold all 8's from early positions. It is safe to open raise with these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember TD is a game of position, getting your money in out of position with hands that could develop counter to your plans is never wise idea. woops.

As played this is not a good place for a snow. You have seen two duces, but its likely that CO has a duce as well if he has 1/2 a brain. Seeing two 8's doesn't matter that much, for example if he catches a 9 he is likely gonna call if he is clean. Your snow here gets lucky sometimes so its easy to start playing poorly here based on past results, but in the long run this is not the correct percentage play IMHO.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Biggle10]

[ QUOTE ]
A little quote from SSII

[ QUOTE ]
2 card draws that include an 8 can be included from late positions only. Fold all 8's from early positions. It is safe to open raise with these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember TD is a game of position, getting your money in out of position with hands that could develop counter to your plans is never wise idea. woops.

As played this is not a good place for a snow. You have seen two duces, but its likely that CO has a duce as well if he has 1/2 a brain. Seeing two 8's doesn't matter that much, for example if he catches a 9 he is likely gonna call if he is clean. Your snow here gets lucky sometimes so its easy to start playing poorly here based on past results, but in the long run this is not the correct percentage play IMHO.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I should probably read SSII again sometime now that I have some TDL experience. I think if one's opponents are moderately tight then 8's could be bad OOP, but nobody folds at these limits so I think generally I have an equity edge here. I could be wrong. I'll have to think more about this.

Villains at this level frequently draw horribly, so giving him credit for a deuce isn't something I'm ready to do quite yet. Against solid regulars, I think you're right.

TT, I take it that snowing based on your discards isn't something you do on a regular basis or am I misreading what you wrote? Or do you typically wait for something strong like 3+ deuces in your hand?

Edit: I just answered my own question. Nobody folds. I should draw.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]

TT, I take it that snowing based on your discards isn't something you do on a regular basis or am I misreading what you wrote? Or do you typically wait for something strong like 3+ deuces in your hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

You misunderstood - snowing based on discards is exactly what you should be doing - as long as the discards affects your opponents likely hand range. In this hand the discards do not affect the hand range at all.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[DeathDonkey]

I think this is fine if the guy is straightforward, if he's at all tricky (might bluff raise or something or freeze you and stand pat behind you) then I'd just check/call and draw one.

-DeathDonkey

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is fine if the guy is straightforward, if he's at all tricky (might bluff raise or something or freeze you and stand pat behind you) then I'd just check/call and draw one.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

But thats more of a bluff than a snow, since the two deuces and 2 8's probably don't affect the villain's hand at all. A horse of a different color. Bluffs work too, however your not relying on the exploitive strategy of missing cards in the deck to assure your opponent doesn't make his hand. With a bluff your just crossing your fingers that your opponent doesn't get there.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[DeathDonkey]

Your terminology is wrong and confusing TT. If we stand pat with this hand, we are snowing. It doesn't matter how likely he is to improve. When we subsequently bet on the end to hopefully get him to fold, we are bluffing. This is a key ingredient to any successful snow. Even if the guy has maximum outs remaining in the deck we are getting a decent price for this. Drawing may be better but this snow will work plenty of times.

-DeathDonkey

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
Your terminology is wrong and confusing TT. If we stand pat with this hand, we are snowing. It doesn't matter how likely he is to improve. When we subsequently bet on the end to hopefully get him to fold, we are bluffing. This is a key ingredient to any successful snow. Even if the guy has maximum outs remaining in the deck we are getting a decent price for this. Drawing may be better but this snow will work plenty of times.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I intentionally used that terminology because although by definition snowing is a bluff, I felt for the purposes of this thread to show that snowing is a strategy using known cards to determine the optional bluffing frequency.

sure standing pat will work sometimes, and sometimes now - but in this situation standing pat only works due to random factors, not the controlled factors of known cards that hurts the villain's hand range which is the optimal time for a snow.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[2461Badugi]

[ QUOTE ]
snowing is a strategy using known cards to determine the optional bluffing frequency.


[/ QUOTE ]

No it isn't. Snowing is simply a bluff using false-carding.

[groo]

Can someone define "snow" for me please?