Floating a nit and turning a draw

[ddubois]

My plan was for them to check/fold turn.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$5/$10 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

btwfupkmgr: $185.00
Illbreakurlegs: $984.00
nationz: $192.50
pinchifish: $496.00
jenn415: $1,101.00
Hero: $1,595.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
nationz calls $10.00, pinchifish folds, <font color="red">jenn415 raises to $45.00</font>, Hero calls $45.00, btwfupkmgr folds, Illbreakurlegs folds, nationz calls $35.00

Flop: ($150) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
nationz checks, <font color="red">jenn415 bets $90.00</font>, Hero calls $90.00, nationz folds

Turn: ($330) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">jenn415 bets $240.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1,050.00</font>

[FooSH]

not sure if i like preflop, but the rest looks ok.

[john kane]

i tried an almost identical move last night and it failed.

trying to bluff a nit when the nit has raised pf, bet flop, bet turn is not wise imo. for sure the board is paired, but people simply do not fold.

[Josh.]

i much, much, much, much, much prefer calling turn and jamming river if he checks

[tuckercat]

nationz is such a bird. he monkey rages me, even when i stack him.

[DrMagic]

Preflop seems pretty bad esp with the ss limping in first. The turn play is pretty marginal(probably on the bad side imo). I think I prefer Josh's line.

[ddubois]

I was being sweated at the time, and my coach and I both immediately thought it was a solid spot to float. I really thought it would go check/bet/fold on the turn pretty often. The fact that villain bet actually surprised me. My initial instinct at that point was to change my float plan when the club hit was to play it straight up: call, go for the flush, etc. But my coach pretty animatedly said shove. And that's why I got a coach: to get away from nitty play and find more spots for good post-flop aggression.

Sadly, AQ FTW.

[dreamcircus]

Call turn for sure. Preflop a little weird I agree.

Also who's your coach? Shove? Consider getting a new one dude.

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
I was being sweated at the time, and my coach and I both immediately thought it was a solid spot to float. I really thought it would go check/bet/fold on the turn pretty often. The fact that villain bet actually surprised me. My initial instinct at that point was to change my float plan when the club hit was to play it straight up: call, go for the flush, etc. But my coach pretty animatedly said shove. And that's why I got a coach: to get away from nitty play and find more spots for good post-flop aggression.

Sadly, AQ FTW.

[/ QUOTE ]


well i hope your coach isn't like MDMA or krantz or someone or i'm going to feel stupid. but imo the float is meh. it's generally not the best idea to float people with strong ranges. if he's that nitty and plays that straightforwardly then i guess it's ok. but if his raising range isn't MUCH looser than AK-AJ, KQ, pairs, your plan won't work too often unless you plan on shoving the river after betting the turn. so against someone like this, i would not call preflop, and i would dump the flop since your sub-par hand preflop now hit a sub-par flop and your nitty opponent just bet.

and the turn shove just sucks imo. when he bets the turn he has a Q a lot, and you can fold when he shoves unless you hit. when he doesn't, he'll check-fold the river. if he doesn't have a Q, he probably has a flush draw, and you don't want that folding either. so he is 100% letting you play perfectly vs. him and you gave it up by putting the money in when you're guaranteed to be a huge dog if called.

so shoving might (MIGHT) be +EV but calling is better in every way i can think of

[ddubois]

I don't know if this is relevant, but calling twice and shoving river would be an extremely unusual line for me. Granted, villain has no way of knowing this, but I would 95% raise this turn if I can beat AA. In position call/call/shove I would probably only do with backdoored draws and rivered sets. Calling twice makes my hand look like JJ or thereabouts. So, assuming we agree such a line is unusual, and we similarly agree that unusual lines look bluffy and get called more often, wouldn't taking your line induce more calls?

On the Pro side, I do understand the value of getting to see him act one more time might outweigh this aspect of the decision. And also, the implied odds on my flush are pretty awesome if he has a Q, given that it's practically unreadable.