#1
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NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
I guess I either have to believe the villain and fold, or make a big raise. He's running 65/30 over 25 hands. My read tells me PP mid to mid-high PP.
Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter SB: $9.55 BB: $17.05 UTG: $10.30 MP: $9.35 Hero (CO): $10 BTN: $11.65 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO) 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, BTN calls $0.40, SB folds, BB calls $0.30 Flop: ($1.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players) <font color="red">BB bets $1.25</font> |
#2
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Re: NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
What's the decision? Raise that [censored] up.
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#3
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Re: NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
with a player running 65/30 are there any hands with a 9 in it I should consider in his range? Maybe a flush draw? if he did have the 9 wouldn't he just check it?
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#4
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Re: NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
Yes 9's and flush draws are a part of his range and so are straight draws, pocket pairs, and air.
I raise and call a shove unless he's a real nit post-flop. |
#5
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Re: NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
Raise this every day. He could have a 9 yes, but also a 7, 88, 66, 10's, 8 10, clubs, nothing....the list goes on. Sorry he had 10 9 and stacked you
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#6
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Re: NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
[ QUOTE ]
Raise this every day. He could have a 9 yes, but also a 7, 88, 66, 10's, 8 10, clubs, nothing....the list goes on. Sorry he had 10 9 and stacked you [/ QUOTE ] lol nope....89o but basically the same thing... |
#7
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Re: NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
Raise more preflop
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#8
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Re: NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
Preflop is good.
Let's put his range to, JJ-66,A9s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,95s+,86s+,76s,A9o,K9o,Q9o,J 9o,T9o,95o+,86o+,76o (note that I put alot of possible draws in there since his range is probably just that huge. Also, I think he is bluffing 5-10% which I take into account in my calculations done). That equals 106 combinations. I will go from my point of view and just say that I have a hard time seeing him folding any of these, well okay, maybe 66 and 87o 87s but nothing else. So we will get called 89% of the times and win those 39,90%. The amount of times he folds, and the times we get called, all adds up to about breakeven in EV$ mostly due to small pot and we have 100bb behind. I like to fire it up and folding if he comes over the top again. |
#9
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Re: NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
[ QUOTE ]
The amount of times he folds, and the times we get called, all adds up to about breakeven in EV$ mostly due to small pot and we have 100bb behind. I like to fire it up and folding if he comes over the top again. [/ QUOTE ] This is bad. If we raise the pot, to 5 dollars and he shoves over top, that's leaving us with 3:1 odds to call. I think he does this often enough with lower PP's, and straight/flush draws. Raise and call a shove is good. |
#10
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Re: NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read
If he shoves over us, I think we can narrow down his range quite much to only nines and strong draws leaving our equity and win % in the low low low %. I dont raise to 5, I raise to like 3.25.
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