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#1
07-25-2007, 01:56 AM
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Short stack problems late in 100 grand
1. Villain lfunk11 has very tight PT stats but could be playing looser with a devent stack
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1500 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com BB (t48022) UTG (t40494) UTG+1 (t61578) MP1 (t22661) MP2 (t29763) CO (t59721) Hero (t18312) SB (t57428) Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t4100</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font> Hero ??? 2. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com UTG (t42819) MP1 (t114083) MP2 (t90840) Hero (t25237) Button (t33164) SB (t52693) BB (t77662) Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t6000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t6000, Hero??? 3. Limper is 2nd biggest stack in tournament and is playing LAG. Has limped this rotation in late position. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com BB (t56419) UTG (t113983) MP1 (t84740) Hero (t25137) CO (t33064) Button (t51593) SB (t71562) Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG calls t2000, <font color="#666666">1 fold Hero??? 
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#2
07-25-2007, 02:52 AM
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Re: Short stack problems late in 100 grand
Hand 1: Get it in there
Hand 2: Looks like a good spot for a reraise as you have a decent amount of chips to possibly scare out some opponents. However, 88 is right in the middle of the pocket pair range. You definitely cant call. Its either an all in or fold. I think i like an all in better than fold Hand 3: A lot of times online people limp UTG to try to trap. Looking at the hands you are discussing though, you just had 88 and folded and now you are looking at AJ? with an M of lower than 10 you cant keep folding these hands. Not saying you have to push but definitely a raise
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#3
07-25-2007, 04:45 AM
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Re: Short stack problems late in 100 grand
1. Cram
2. Cram 3. Cram Poker is EZ
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#4
07-25-2007, 04:47 AM
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Re: Short stack problems late in 100 grand
Good OP, close spots.
My guess’s were 1.Push 2.Fold 3.Push now I’ll do the math… 1. Pot = 2250 + 75*8 + 4100 = 6950 Say he’s very tight then hes rasing say… 99+,AJs+,AQo+ 5.4% of hands and hes gonna call with TT+,AQs+,AQo+ 4.7% Your 40% vs that calling range. hes calling 87% of time 13% of time u win 6950 35% of time u win 2850 + 18312 = 21162 52% of time u lose 18312 903+7407-9522 = -1212 chips… if the calling range remains consistant the he needs to fold 30% of the time for push to show a profit… 30% 2085 28% 5925 42% 7691 = +319 calling range/raising range * 100 = % of time called calling range/% of time called * 100 = raising range 4.7%/70% * 100 = 6.7% so if hes raising 88+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+ (7.1%) of hands then the push shows a profit if hes tighter then it’s a fold.
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#6
07-25-2007, 05:21 AM
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Re: Short stack problems late in 100 grand
I don't like a shove too much in 2, but it's close so whatever really. Push 1 and 3 pretty easy, put him on exact same range as JayPez hand 1, heh. I think he's calling all hands he's raising with though.
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#7
07-25-2007, 05:24 AM
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Re: Short stack problems late in 100 grand
2.
Squeeze math is a bitch but I aint got anything better to do. Blinds antes = 3700 Pot = 15700. Your stack = 25300 Opening utg range 7 handed from yellow zone stack for an unknown could be… 77+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,Kqo (10.3%) The mp2 is big stack, but doesn’t have set odds for the call so I put it at… 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,Kqo (9.8%) IF THEY BOTH CALL (14% chance) so if the first raiser calls with TT+,AQs+,AQo+ (4.7%) hes pushing 46% of time. MP2 only calls with… JJ+,AKs,Ako (3%) hes calling 30% of time. UTG CALLS MP2 FOLDS (32% chance) TT+,AQs+,AQo+ (4.7%) hes pushing 46% of time. Mp2 folding 70% of time UTG FOLDS MP2 CALLS (31% chance) When the utg raiser folds (54%) mp2 calls with… 99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ (5.7%) hes calling 58% of time. THE BOTH FOLD (23% chance) TBC 14% chance 20% u win 54300 80% u lose 25300 = 10860 – 20240 = -9380 1C1F 32% chance 33% u win 29000 67% u lose 25300 = 9570 – 16951 = -7381 1F1C 31% chance 37% u win 29000 63% u lose 25300 = 10730 – 15939 = -5209 TBF 23% chance 100% u win 15700 = 15700 -1313 – 2436 – 1927 + 3611 = - 2065 chips, lol 1 bb.
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#8
07-25-2007, 05:37 AM
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Re: Short stack problems late in 100 grand
2. I also didn’t include the chance the players behind u may have a strong hand (unlikely) and are calling so its even more –ev.
3. Pot = 5700 Your stack =25100 im pretty sure this is +ev so I’ll just do this quickly. hes lag so limpin. 55+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,ATo+,KTo+,Q To+,Jto 18% say?? Calling with 88+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+ 7% 39% of time calling… 38% vs range… blah blah blah 61% u win 5700 15% u win 28800 24% u lose 25100 3477+ 4320 – 6024 = + 1773 chips, around a big blind the limp range is pretty hard to define, unlikely hes limping ak,aq etc etc , so its even more +ev.
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#9
07-25-2007, 05:45 AM
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Re: Short stack problems late in 100 grand
Push, fold, push.
I'd push TT in hand 2 but 88 looks too close, esp with hardly any FE.
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