LO8 Tough river decision?.....Maybe not.

cgkid · #1 09-11-2007, 09:21 PM

The game was pretty loose passive and it was early in the session so I didn't have any player specific info. Maybe this is obvious, I don't know.

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10.5SB, 5 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button calls, BB calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.25BB, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button calls, BB calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (11.25BB, 4 players)
BB bets, Hero???

BigBadBabar · #2 09-11-2007, 10:03 PM

calls

bbartlog · #3 09-11-2007, 11:40 PM

Folding is exploitable. Still, at low limits where everyone is a station, I think BB is betting 23xx here 80% of the time, and when he's betting broadway instead your low is no good most of the time. There are games I've played (low limit, passive) where I would say this can safely be folded.

Rush17 · #4 09-12-2007, 12:13 AM

I would be shocked if either part of your hand was good in this spot. For the BB to bet out into the field like that, he is almsot always going to have a nut hand, and given the flop texture, he's probably going to show you a wheel. And, if he doesn't have the wheel, but instead the broadway...well if you decide to just call, what if some num-nut behind you decides to call with the second nut low? You'd still lose. And that's what makes this a much harder spot for you because your position just sucks and you'd have no guarantee that if you called one bet, that you wouldn't be confronted for any more. If you were HU, I would call. As is, I fold.

BigBadBabar · #5 09-12-2007, 12:21 AM

oh i thought it was hu and not 4way. hm that makes it pretty close to a fold then.

Buzz · #6 09-12-2007, 04:30 AM

Cgkid - BB probably has a wheel. But it's also a possibility that BB has a Broadway (ace-high straight). And in that case, you might eke out a win for low with your "emergency" low combo (2-7).

However, if BB doesn't have a wheel, there simply is too high a probability one of the players behind you does. 2-3 is a combo opponents who saw this flop would probably continue to play.

I hate to fold here. I agree with Bart that it's exploitable to fold here. Heads up, I'd call for sure.

My impulse on reading your post was to fold, but after spending some time thinking about things, I don't know. I like a call if you think there won't be a raise behind you.

If you think there might well be a raise behind you, I like a fold.

Overall, I guess I'd risk one bet on the chance that nobody behind you has the wheel and maybe BB doesn't either.

Buzz

jlocdog · #7 09-12-2007, 04:39 AM

Not sure I am so afraid of 23xx given the fact that they would be drawing so thin. It should be a given assumption that atleast 1 (and prolly more) aces are out so many of their outs are used up. Also, 23xx is a sucker low draw here so they can't feel too comfortable with that draw. All in all 12-1 may be just a bit too much to pass up on in terms of letting our hand go right there. If the action explodes behind us I can definitely find a fold but given this is a LAP type game only makes me want to call more.

To add- on this dry rainbow board, I would not be surprised at all (and given the description of the table should only reinforce this) if two pair and smaller sets show up here alot. You are not scooping but you still are winning enough of the time.

BradleyT · #8 09-12-2007, 04:46 AM

The game was loose and passive. I don't think 2 pair is betting out here into someone who raised preflop and bet every street. On the flop 23 has a zomg open ended straight draw so of course bad players are going to play it to the river.

cgkid · #9 09-12-2007, 01:04 PM

I did the one thing nobody mentioned. I raised to promote my low draw when he has broadway. I'm not saying it was the best play especially at these stakes. I may have been trying too hard to win this pot but I think raising has some merit and deserves consideration in a hand like this.

I think calling is the worst play in a 4 handed pot. Heads up just calling is best obviously.

bbartlog · #10 09-12-2007, 01:33 PM

So... if he has broadway, *and* someone else has 26xx or 27xx and folds it, you get a nice return. But what do you do if someone calls and BB 3-bets? Or even if there are two folds and BB 3-bets. You still don't know if he has 23xx or JQxx, but it would seem that you have to call - which means that if he has the wheel you're throwing away 2BB. I don't think the math works out for the promo raise here. 23xx just seems too likely.