2-7 TD question

[Mr_Soprano]

If someone stays pat with 3s 5s 6h 9h 2s are they a favourite against someone drawing 2 on the first draw in 2-7 triple draw?

And the 2nd part if they are again pat are they a favourite against someone drawing 1 on the 2nd draw?

[MarkGritter]

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If someone stays pat with 3s 5s 6h 9h 2s are they a favourite against someone drawing 2 on the first draw in 2-7 triple draw?

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Yes. Here is a hand distribution for what somebody drawing to 732xx will have after three draws:

http://wiki.lowballgurus.com/article/Drawing_to_732xx

The two-card draw, if played perfectly by keeping 8's but not 9's, will beat a 96432 only about 43% of the time. (It is actually a bit less as you hold two of his outs--- the table doesn't take that into account.)

Maybe I should do 432, that is more likely to be the best two-card draw against 96532.

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And the 2nd part if they are again pat are they a favourite against someone drawing 1 on the 2nd draw?

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Yes. You can use the Dead Out Calculator to analyze this draw (though that really wasn't what it was meant for.)

I put in 2347 as "your hand" and clicked on just 96532 as the only opponent hand. The odds that the draw will win are about 43% if three bricks are known to be dead. (About 40% if you don't select any dead cards, but note that the draw must have at least one card which doesn't help him.)

If the draw has 5432 instead he's a bit better (because 9s will help him and the 96532 has none of his outs) but still only about 47% to win over both draws.

[Mr_Soprano]

Thanks for the explanation.

I had the 732xx and drew 2 got a 5 and then made an 8 on the next draw.

I stood pat on the next draw with my 8 and called a bet on the river. He showed down a 9 and I won the pot.

He seemed to think my play was terrible, but I don't see it that way considering I had position the whole hand and a pretty good draw. Obviously I didn't love my hand at the end but I thought it was still worth calling on the river (probably the worst hand I would call with there).

[MarkGritter]

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I had the 732xx and drew 2 got a 5 and then made an 8 on the next draw.

I stood pat on the next draw with my 8 and called a bet on the river.

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Assuming the action went raise/reraise/call on the first round, you played this perfectly. There is no way you can fold 7532 for one small bet, getting 7:1 or better. It is worth taking a card off even if the pot is significantly smaller.

Keeping the 8 is the correct decision. Against a player who is pat before the first draw, your 875 should win more often than drawing will. If you don't think your 8 can win, you probably don't have odds to draw either.

(Though you are in a reverse-implied-odds situation here, since you are more likely to pay an extra bet in the 4th round when behind than to win one when ahead.)

[Logun]

So you drew 2 against a re-raiser out of the blind?

on the 2nd draw you've got 2357 so it wouldn't be a stretch to assume you are drawing to 8 outs FTW. Whereas an 8 would pretty much be a trap card - showing down 87 is probably pretty thin.

I think your 2nd draw is just as bad a play as the first.

[Mr_Soprano]

[ QUOTE ]
So you drew 2 against a re-raiser out of the blind?

on the 2nd draw you've got 2357 so it wouldn't be a stretch to assume you are drawing to 8 outs FTW. Whereas an 8 would pretty much be a trap card - showing down 87 is probably pretty thin.

I think your 2nd draw is just as bad a play as the first.

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Villian in the hand ^

[Logun]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you drew 2 against a re-raiser out of the blind?

on the 2nd draw you've got 2357 so it wouldn't be a stretch to assume you are drawing to 8 outs FTW. Whereas an 8 would pretty much be a trap card - showing down 87 is probably pretty thin.

I think your 2nd draw is just as bad a play as the first.

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Villian in the hand ^

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Donkey in the hand ^

[Logun]

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There is no way you can fold 7532 for one small bet, getting 7:1 or better.

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Pot limit.

UTG raised to 1.50
BB re-raised to 5.00

BB stands pat
UTG draws 2
BB leads for 8.00

....etc

[Mr_Soprano]

btw this is NL, so that may sway opinions. (I should have pointed that out before hand)

blinds were 0.25/50
I raised to $2 predraw, he repopped me to $5 in the sb I called in position.

After first draw he bet $7.

After 2nd draw he bet $8 I called for pot control and because I was staying pat so I thought it would slow him down.

At the end he bet $15 I called.

[Logun]

I wish I remembered this properly.

but I'm not entirely positve you have preflop or post flop bet amounts correct.

the 8$ and the 15$ were correct though as after you drew 2 I figure I had a sizeable edge and wanted to entice you to draw another 2.

River was a blocker.