FT200, bluffing TheXC

[Nielsio]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $179.75
Hero (BB): $185.70
UTG: $135.60
CO: $209.75
BTN: $197.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $7.00</font>, SB calls $6.00, Hero calls $5.00

Flop: ($21) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($21) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $17.00</font>, BTN calls $17.00, SB folds

River: ($55) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $88.00</font>


TheXC is 20/18/2/228, 4% 3-bet, 50% CB.

[thac]

You're never bluffing him off a FH, so I guess just pray he has 87

[Unknown Soldier]

he has 9x too often

[11t]

If you never overbet the pot on the river then you should not when you are bluffing

Throw in a 1/2 to 2/3 sized bet on the river for deception

[tannenj]

thexc is very good and can make big folds.

[shpanko]

the main question is what does this guy check behind with on the flop but call with on the turn?

I think a decent portion of his range is missed draws but those will fold to a smaller bet whereas 9x is rarely folding even to this large bet.

[early325]

i doubt he has 9x here, unless its A9

i think every other 9x hand has to cbet this flop

this play probably +EV but it's marginal..you'll fold out enough draws though

[thac]

Why would 9x bet this flop?

[early325]

because it has no showdown value?

you raise 89s PF and dont cbet a 226 board?

[thac]

Eh I guess I'm too nitty 3-ways then