NL100 - Combo draw to two shoves

[Burdzthewurd]

NL100 6-handed at a full table, no reads

Relevant stacks:

CO: $72
SB: $18
Hero in BB: $115

2 folds, CO limps, Button folds, SB completes, I check T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Flop K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, CO goes all-in for $71, SB goes all-in for $17...

Can my flush draw even be good here? Probably getting bad odds with the CO 3-bet shoving here [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[kerk]

I would call. I think you see K9, K7 and 77 a lot here. Also as the Ks is on the board its unlikely someone has limped/completed with nut flush draw cards.

[fees]

just stove it
sb has kq and co has 99

[Jaconda78]

Well, let's do the math. It's $59 more to you, and there is $100 in the pot. I think you should fold here - even forgetting the short stack (who I think very often has a better flush draw here), if you give CO a range of KK, 99, 77, K9, K7, 97, or 7x of spades, you're about 38% to win. Marginal at best, and that's discounting the short stack. You're just not getting the pot odds here. A call isn't awful, esp since he might on occasion have KQ, KJ, etc, but it's probably -EV in the long run once you throw in the short stack.

[kerk]

i think you are giving them too wide a range. i think this is definatly a call.

[Jaconda78]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you are giving them too wide a range. i think this is definatly a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if you put him on a set or two pair (which I personally think is too tight. Things like A7 of spades are definitely in his range, I think)you're only 41% to win, and that's without considering the short stack. If you put villain on set, two pair, or A7s, and you put shortie on any flush draw, you go to 21% to win (pokerstove appended at the end). There are just too many times when you're not drawing to the best hand, and even if you are, he has redraws with a set. Combo draws are great, but not for monster bets. Part of the value of your combo draw is in being the one to push in and get some FE out of it.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,112,496 games 0.016 secs 69,531,000 games/sec

Board: Ks 9s 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.413% 21.41% 00.00% 238221 0.00 { Ts6s }
Hand 1: 61.070% 61.06% 00.01% 679300 96.00 { KK, 99, 77, K9s, K7s, 97s, K9o, K7o, 97o }
Hand 2: 17.517% 17.51% 00.01% 194783 96.00 { AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Qs6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, Js6s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Js2s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, Ts5s, Ts4s, Ts3s, Ts2s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 9s6s, 9s5s, 9s4s, 9s3s, 9s2s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 8s5s, 8s4s, 8s3s, 8s2s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 7s3s, 7s2s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 6s3s, 6s2s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 5s2s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s }