AQ unimproved

[The DaveR]

Daytime Mirage 20. CO posts. UTG limps, CO knuckles, I raise AQ in the SB, BB calls as do the rest. CO is friendly with the regulars, floor, and dealer so almost certainly a regular.

Flop is JJ7 two clubs, I have the Qc. I bet, CO calls.

Turn is a 5. I bet, CO calls.

River is a 3 no flush possible. Good sexy yes?

[gaming_mouse]

yet again.... my hero.

[brettbrettr]

thank you sir.

[PokerBob]

imo if he bets, he doesn't have anything anyway.

[private joker]

Standard up to the river, then I would say a check-call or a check-raise would be fine. I think I agree with Bob that he's never calling a c/r, but the argument against Bob is that your c/r might get him to fold a better hand often enough to invest the extra BB over c/c.

I think I'm persuaded to go with Dave's line.

nh
-joker

[brettbrettr]

He can't bet a 7 here?

[Mike Pemulis]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard up to the river, then I would say a check-call or a check-raise would be fine. I think I agree with Bob that he's never calling a c/r, but the argument against Bob is that your c/r might get him to fold a better hand often enough to invest the extra BB over c/c.

I think I'm persuaded to go with Dave's line.

nh
-joker

[/ QUOTE ]

Joker--

Don't forget that Villain can also call with a worse hand. It's not a primary reason to make the play, but I can definitely get looked up here by ace-high (& worse?) and I imagine Dave can also. Many ace-high hands check the river, but you never know. Also, I'm not into making big sacrifices for the metagame, but this is good for the metagame.

--Mike

[green100b]

He has a middle pocket pair and is calling both a raise and a checkraise.

[brettbrettr]

Maybe. I also think there's a good chance he does have hero beat but isn't going to be one of those guys who lets hero one-bet bluff each street to take this pot. He might very well see hero's river play and say, ok, he's not effing around.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe. I also think there's a good chance he does have hero beat but isn't going to be one of those guys who lets hero one-bet bluff each street to take this pot. He might very well see hero's river play and say, ok, he's not effing around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. This is where Dave's comment about his being a regular comes in. The assumption is regular => probably is decent and tries to play well => good enough chance will fold 1 pair to river c/r.

You may think the links in the chain of reasoning are not strong enough to justify the 2 bets, but since the alternatives are c/f and c/c, each of which has problems of its own, I am convinced that the extra investment is going to show a profit.