25NL--Trying something out of character...suggestions?

[Abdullaev]

Villain is 42/0/0.6 over 38 hands. I have been playing only four tables and trying to raise twice as much as I normally do. At this point, my stats are something like 12/8/2, but my usual play is something more like 13/3/0.7.

UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
UTG+2 folds
MP folds
MP+1 folds
CO folds
Hero [$26.25] on button raises $0.75 to $1 with 6c 6d
Villain [$20] in SB calls
BB folds

Flop: [4d 3d 2h]

Villain checks
Hero bets $1.75
Villain raises $2.25 to $4
Hero calls $2.25

<font color="#666666">Hadn't seem him raise at all, preflop or postflop. Because he'd been so passive, I didn't think he'd raise a flush draw here. So I figured that if a diamond came on the turn I could bluff the pot. Plus I could hit my straight. Good plan? Bad plan? I rarely bluff at 25NL because of all the stations. </font>

Turn: 8c

Villain bets $3
Hero calls $3

<font color="#666666"> Now he's got 40% of his stack in there--$8 with only $12 behind. But his bet has decreased. Not sure if he doesn't want to overcommit or if he's trying to lure me into raising. So I just call, hoping for a five but trying to represent two diamond overs.</font>

River: Td

<font color="#666666">Jackpot . . . right? </font>

Villain bets $3
Hero raises $9 to $12

<font color="#666666"> I figured that this $3 bet screamed weakness, so I stayed in character and put him all in, even though he had more than half of his stack in already. Is this whole plan -EV? Suggestions? </font>

[CaptVimes]

38 hands isn't much as far as the stats go, I think you were fine until you called his flop raise. After that it was pretty much spew with a gutshot. You've pegged this guy as passive, he check raises you, and you want to continue? Small bets can also mean that he has a big hand and hopes you will keep calling smaller bets with a marginal hand.

On the river, the pot is large, and you probably won't be able to bluff a bad/loose player. He would only have to call 9 to win 28. My thought is that if he was worried or cared about the flush, he would not have bet the river. You have to have some fold equity here, and loose players don't generally have it.

[RapidEvolution]

I think you should fold the flop after he c/raises you. He's got a made hand (likely a set or 2pair) and even though the sample is small, his AF suggests that he'll take a hand this strong to SD (which isn't what you want).

[Brimstead]

hmmm, no need to get over complicate things at nl25.
i wouldnt rely on a 38 hand sample if i was trying to do something elaborate.
Fold to his c/r on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Now he's got 40% of his stack in there

[/ QUOTE ]

fold unless you think u have best hand, in which case put him AI. You don't really have any FE here at all, Td is not the jackpot cos this villain can't be going anywhere with so much of his stack in and probably a strong made hand.