Shutting Myself Down (theory post)

[ProfessorBen]

Poker used to be easy. Call when you have pot odds. Bet when you are ahead. Get to showdown in big pots with marginal hands. I learned these lessons and learned them well. Then, life got hard. Competing interests came into play and I had to learn to make distinctions if I wanted to stay a winner as the limits got bigger and the players got better.

More and more, I have found myself in a specfic situation where these distinctions are vital:

1. I have a marginal holding as well as a draw of varying strength OOP on the turn.
2. We are HU and I had the last action on the flop.
3. Villain is an aggressive player and there is a reasonable chance I will get raised by a chunk of his range. However, I am likely to still have some FE.
4. I have pot odds to see a river so bet/folding is not a good option. I must either bet/call or check/call.

I've posted 3 hands. Talk to me about them. I'm not so much interested in what you're doing but why you are doing it. If you are taking different lines for each of these, what are the distinctions that you find important? Talk to me about villain's range, plans for a blank river, sacraficing value for drawing cheaply, etc.

In all of these situations, villain is an aggressive, thinking player(winner at this limit) with a reasonable preflop range who is aware that you are the same.

Hand 1:
Villain raises in the CO, Hero calls 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB.
Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero check raises, Villain calls.
Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero...

Hand 2:
EP limps, Villain raises on the Button, Hero 3-bets 88 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB, BB folds, EP calls, Villain calls.
Flop: 975r
Hero bets, EP folds, Villain calls.
Turn: A
Hero...

Hand 3:
EP limps, Hero limps QJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], MP limps, Villain limps, Blinds call.
Flop: J86 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets, MP calls, Villain raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP folds, Villain calls.
Turn: 9
Hero...

[rafiki]

well hand 2 looks a lot like check-call to me, just based on pot size and villains range. It also induces some bluffs from KQ and 66ish hands. River action all depends on the card that comes up.

hand 1 is tough. Not as much showdown value as your other posted hands. And although the draw has the most outs, they must be really tainted. If I could somehow read his soul to see if the club was good, it would influence me decision. tough one, looking forward to seeing what some people have to say on it.

hand 3 is fine, get to showdown. Bet. A lot of times some passive guy shows you AJ. Helps to raise preflop there.

[ProfessorBen]

rafiki: Good start. I'm going to play some devil's advocate here.

Hand 2: Does your answer change if the turn is a K?

Hand 3: As noted, Villain is a TAG. AJ may be in his range at this point, but it should be discounted. Think of the villain as the compliation of the 2p2ers who argue of whether you should raise AJ after several limpers. A few won't, but many do. More importantly, what does villain's range look like at this point? Also, does your answer change if the board is J97/T? That was how I originally posted the hand.

[rafiki]

hand 2: yes the answer changes if it's a K. for the same reasons that bluffing at a Kxx flop in NL is a lot easier then Axx. I lean more towards bet then check.

hand 3: I think his range is almost always a pair and a draw or just top pair. And since we're in the upper end of that same situation, I have to get to showdown. And ya it plays much harder with J97T, but I think this forum is complicated enough, keep it "simple". haha.

[Howard Beale]

Hand 1:

I fold that hand pf against that type of villain. I don't know what other people here are going to say but as far as I'm concerned this a 'who needs this aggravation?' type of hand. HU v. a good player w/ a weak hand. You catch a piece of the flop and from there on (unless you flop huge and who knows if he pays you from there on) it's maybe this, what do I do now that, I'm in trouble, I'm not in trouble, where do I stand, and all that junk. I just say 'next hand' and fold that thing.

Hand 2:

You started down the road and should bet that turn, imo. If you get popped I suppose you're beat but you've got your outs.

Hand 3:

Bet. Pretty sure you're best on the turn. No raise pf, villain didn't 4-bet flop, he's got a piece but looks like less than yours.

[ProfessorBen]

Howard:
Hand 1: I think most people here will defend 87o to a CO raise, but fair enough, its probably close so you have a point. However, either way you are dodging the meat of the hand. For your sake, let's say you defended T9o and flopped A9x/Q instead.(I think this situation is very different from my example though)

Hand 2: We do have outs, but if we knew we were going to be raised, it would be a mistake to bet/call. Obviously, that is not the case because villain will fold or call here some of the time. I'm fine with betting if you think its still prudent, but I think it's worth considering how often you are raised here.

[threeonefour]

I bet 1 and 2 strictly for value and because we have the odds to safely call a raise (though it wouldn't be fun to do so). 2 is much closer, you could check call, but i just worry about KQ owning me by virtue of having position. though KQ won't always bet the river after you call the turn so perhaps it is better. actually, since TT calls the turn, unless you choose to fire another barrel unimproved (which would be a mistake right?), betting the turn's only significant benefit comes from folding overcards. seems like a close decision. 1 is definitely a bet, classic two-way hand hu (you have a made hand and a draw, both may be good/better than villian and its almost certain that one of the two is).

3rd hand. i don't know if i like the 3bet on the flop out of position, it makes the hand difficult to play in many ways. however, i do think it probably squeezes a bit more equity out of that street so maybe it is best overall.

as played, bet/call.

now that i have said bet/call for all three i am beginning to worry that the "wait for the turn" types might be eating my lunch far too often.

[vmacosta]

I'd start by betting all of them and the better questions involve what to do if you're called or raised.

My guess is you're running bad if these spots are giving you too much pause.

[Captain R]

Hand 1 & 2. You get raised, so what, you don't know if you're ahead or behind, but your hands are so vulnerable and you need to protect them and fold out lame A-high (hand 1) or KJ (hand 2) type hands. I'm assuming this guy is not going to go nuts on you on the turn without a hand that beats you. In Hand 2, you will usually have a reasonable pocket pair or a good Ace here, and he has to realize that. So you're not going to get played back at except by something that beats you. I think he more frequently has two overcards than an Ace. I do usually fold Hand 1 preflop.

I don't 3-bet hand 3 OOP on the flop. Get to showdown, no need to re-raise OOP with a marginal hand. As played, bet it.

Anyway, you don't know what the other guy has, you don't if you're ahead or behind, so just bet it. With outs, it's not criminal to get raised. Additionally, if you just check it, you don't know how to play the river and probably have to call down anyway. I put the onus on the other guy to figure out if he's ahead of me or not.

[Howard Beale]

[ QUOTE ]
Howard:
Hand 1: I think most people here will defend 87o to a CO raise, but fair enough, its probably close so you have a point. However, either way you are dodging the meat of the hand. For your sake, let's say you defended T9o and flopped A9x/Q instead.(I think this situation is very different from my example though)

Hand 2: We do have outs, but if we knew we were going to be raised, it would be a mistake to bet/call. Obviously, that is not the case because villain will fold or call here some of the time. I'm fine with betting if you think its still prudent, but I think it's worth considering how often you are raised here.

[/ QUOTE ]

(I'm avoiding the other scenario because my stomach hurts.)

Re hand 1:

You c/r flop, villain just calls. My default setting since I only do this is if I've got something or think I can manipulate my opponent (which is why I'd avoid this type villain in the first place w/ this hand) is to bet pretty much any turn and especially this one. What else are you going to do that isn't lame? You've got your pair and your flush draw. Check/calling is reasonable, I guess, but are you going to c/c river UI? And suppose he checks behind on the turn? That's really horrible. I prefer to just bet and take it from there. But I'll say it again: Fold it pf.

Hand 2:

If you don't bet turn you are inviting villain to take this pot away from you regardless if he has the Ace or not. Frankly, he may raise you w/ air. You've got to know your man a bit to really know how to proceed but (generally speaking) you've represented great strength from the start. How can you stop now? But, that's just my approach and I'm sure others will disagree.