![]() |
#1
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
There's got to be +EV in Cleveland-128 over the Yankees, already up 1-0 and with Carmona yet to pitch and Sabathia coming for one more game if needed, and the general BSP Yankee situation.
Also, Arizona+525 to win the WS. Up 2-0, likely to play Colorado with Webb's grounders in Coors, the WS likely to be closer to 50/50 than most BSP's think, etc. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
Yep, true there is almost always value in betting against Yankees in the postseason.
Arizona, not so sure on that one. Just off the top of my head, -520 * -170 * +200 = +600 or thereabouts. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
[ QUOTE ]
Also, Arizona+525 to win the WS. Up 2-0, likely to play Colorado with Webb's grounders in Coors, the WS likely to be closer to 50/50 than most BSP's think, etc. [/ QUOTE ] if the WS is closer to 50/50 (which i disagree with) wouldn't the best bet to bet the national league to win the world series since NL is 2 to 1 dog on nearly every book |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
Damned right it would be, and it was the bet I've really wanted to make for awhile. Sadly for me, it ain't up on the 3 books I'm using. I'm trying to back into it a bit this way, using the team (Dbacks) that I think has the value at the current numbers I can get.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
you arizona bet is bad. No way a nl team is less than 2-1 in ws, especially at this point.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
Definitely some value up to about -140 for Cleveland.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
betting the yanks in a futures play cant be good they have by far the hardest road to the world series and are not off to a good start already.
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
[ QUOTE ]
No way a nl team is less than 2-1 in ws, especially at this point. [/ QUOTE ] Again, I wish I could bet that line (but can't). No way that Arizona (all I'm interested in here, obviously) *should* be a 2-1 dog to any of the AL teams. Not unless all current sabermetric knowledge is wrong. |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] No way a nl team is less than 2-1 in ws, especially at this point. [/ QUOTE ] Again, I wish I could bet that line (but can't). No way that Arizona (all I'm interested in here, obviously) *should* be a 2-1 dog to any of the AL teams. Not unless all current sabermetric knowledge is wrong. [/ QUOTE ] What sabermetric knowledge supports Arizona being less than a 2-1 dog to the Yankees, Red Sox or Indians? I would need at least +950 there. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
![]()
[ QUOTE ]
What sabermetric knowledge supports Arizona being less than a 2-1 dog to the Yankees, Red Sox or Indians? I would need at least +950 there. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. AZ is +700 on SIA, and I still wouldn't touch that. Col is also +700 on SIA, which IMO is a better bet if you are looking to go with the NL. It's also slightly arb-able (vs -669 on WSEX). |
![]() |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|