Range and equity estimation vs. orange

[yad]

Villain is orange. I thought initially that this was pretty clear, but have gotten to thinking about what his range likely is for his flop raise, etc etc, and I think I was probably wrong. I have been playing something like 23/20, so has he.

This may seem boring, but playing with range and equity calculations both for my action and also for what his raising range on this flop should be is kinda interesting imo.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $75.70
Hero: $194
CO: $258.15
Button: $202.55
SB: $230.30
BB: $441.40

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $10</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($32, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $22</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $88</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ????? </font>

[orange]

hm fwiw, villan does not know who hero is.

[xorbie]

you can call and fold to a turn bet UI.

[willw9]

Umm I insta-shove

[yad]

[ QUOTE ]
Umm I insta-shove

[/ QUOTE ]

in general i like instashoving (not necessarily in this spot, just generally. it feels good). but what do you think his range is to raise this flop, and what do you think his shove calling range is?

maybe it's not cool to speculate too much on a known 2p2er like this, but i feel like most good aggro players should have pretty similar ranges in spots like this, so it's not really so orange-specific IMO. but orange, if you'd rather we don't speculate too much on this speak up and i won't.

[GrandMelon]

Orange never is never semi bluffing here IME. Looks like a flopped set or low flush.

[Ralph Wiggum]

[ QUOTE ]
you can call and fold to a turn bet UI.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think equity changes that much on UI turns. Any draw orange is c/r'ing here, he's pushing on the turn (or I think he would).

[n1nj4.br]

i think orange is very strong here. its a multiway drawy flop and im pretty sure he is not folding anything that he is raising with.

I think his range is more likely a set or a nonnut flush. The think is: do u think he is going to do this with something like TxTd or bluff like ever ? If so u should push, if not, u should fold.

I would fold.

[scorer]

Post deleted by scorer

[Ralph Wiggum]

[ QUOTE ]
in general i like instashoving (not necessarily in this spot, just generally. it feels good). but what do you think his range is to raise this flop, and what do you think his shove calling range is?

[/ QUOTE ]
Aren't both ranges the same? What do you guys think about this range, too thin/wide?

Hand 0: 37.243% { KcKd }
Hand 1: 62.757% { 8c8h, 8c8s, 8h8s, 4c4h, 4c4s, 4h4s, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs }