#1
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Is this an ok spot to semibluff? SB v. BB
Table has been pretty aggressive, villian seemed fairly tight and just got his big stack a couple hands ago when he got AI preflop with AA.
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t4000 with t200 antes (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com UTG (t48190) UTG+1 (t71635) MP1 (t178168) CO (t72370) Button (t137820) SB (t152141) Hero (t104111) Preflop: Hero is in BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t16000</font>, Hero calls t12000 Flop: (t35400) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players) <font color="red">SB bets t20000</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t87911 (All-in)</font>, SB calls t67911 Turn: (t211222) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players) River: (t211222) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players) |
#2
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Re: Is this an ok spot to semibluff? SB v. BB
According to my math..
Let's say he folds half the time so I win the 53400 in the pot 50% of the time. I calculated my equity against villian's hand and it was 35% so 17.5% of the time I win 121000 or so and 32.5% of the time I lose the 88000 in front of me. If I did the math right (and I'm not sure if I did or not) I should average a 20k gain or a 20% stack increase, but I bust 1/3 of the time and given that I had a top 10 stack of 50 or so left, I dunno, thoughts? |
#3
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Re: Is this an ok spot to semibluff? SB v. BB
anyone?
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#4
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Re: Is this an ok spot to semibluff? SB v. BB
I fold preflop.
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#5
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Re: Is this an ok spot to semibluff? SB v. BB
[ QUOTE ]
I fold preflop. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I think that was a bad call, maybe if we were deeper though. |
#6
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Re: Is this an ok spot to semibluff? SB v. BB
Since you have described villain as tight, he raised PF (granted, from the SB), and the only showdown you have seen from him was AA, I think a 50% likelihood of his folding is optimistic.
However, I ran some numbers, and even if he folds only 30% of the time and your only outs are your straight cards, you are still at just below neutral value (-347 by my calculations). So if you think he is folding in the neighborhodd of 50% of the time, it is a +value push. If villain is c-betting a missed flop and your 9 and 10 are both outs as well, it becomes a much better value. This result really surprises me, since without running any numbers I would have said it is a definite fold. I am interested to see what the more statistically sophisticated players think. |
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