Okay, so from the first hand onwards Ive been betting and raising the living daylight out of this guy. Raised all but one hand pf, followed up on flop and turn and he either folded or called with the worse hand.
Hes not exactly a great player, but not completely retarded imo. Way too passive and predictable.
Then this:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed)
Hand History converter Courtesy of
PokerZion.com
Hero (t1800)
Button (t1200)
Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Button calls t10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t80</font>, Button calls t60.
Flop: (t160) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t120</font>, Button calls t120.
Turn: (t400) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t260</font>, Button calls t260.
River: (t920) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button thinks for 1 second and bets t740 (All-In)</font>
Pokerinstincts said ZOMG! BLUFF.
Rational thinking said: Hes not the kind of player who instashoves for value here without JJ or KK. He would be thinking a little while before value-shoving with anything but the nuts. That also includes monsters like KJ and a low set. He doesnt have the kind of gameplan to know "If this guy checks Im gonna shove cause a million worse hands will call me". So the obvious range left is a busted draw and some kind of frustrated double float with 4th pair that realizes it wont win a showdown.
Additionally, he had the perfect bluff-timing. Very short hesitation, then the shove.
Now, despite the fact that it makes perfect sense in MY mind. Is this maybe a little too much pseudo-science Im doing here? Can I ever take argumentation as the above to make a call like that in a 33$ HUsngs with an unknown?
what you guys say?