Re: NFL - Is home team advantage dropping?
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can you do a t test on this? a binomial testing the last 5 years with a mu of time before that or something?
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Yeah, I just did that - comparing 2001 and after to 2000 and before. 2000 and before is lower with p < 0.014. That's a significant result. I think most people want a p-value much lower than this before they're willing to bet large sums of money. I think Stanford Wong wrote a chapter on why this is so, but I can't recall off the top of my head.
I also did a regression through "home winning percentage" :
y = -0.0048x + 0.6174
R2 = 0.393
So, pretty clearly a negative slope.
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