[Nick C]

Instead of responding blind, I went ahead and read through what people had said.

And, well, NL must be messing with my limit instincts, because the river looks spewy to me.

And, having said that, I'll admit that the alternatives all have their drawbacks as well. Still, the best losing hand Villain can have is JhXx, and he is up against a PFR who could easily have the Kh or Ah. (However, I do recall coming to the conclusion when I was playing 3/6 and then 5/10 regularly that SB open-raises from unknowns are practically meaningless -- kind of a "welcome to the table, and I'm going to keep doing this, so get used to it" sort of thing.) Checking the river in theory shows less strength than donkbetting it would and also gives Villain a chance to bluff again if that's what he's doing, but we are still counting on Villain to bet any heart. Which is not a certainty, but I'm pretty sure I would like the checkraise if he couldn't 3-bet.

But he can.

And, of course, if istewart's 66% figure is precisely correct, then we shouldn't call the 3-bet, but that just seems insane to me in a blind battle. We're showing down, and we have no good way to see that the "correct" number of bets go in, so we do what we can. But I sure do hate seeing that 3-bet.