[Martin Carlsson]

Usually a min raise preflop is a good indication that you are up against a weak player. But in this thread I want to discuss under which circumstances a min raise whit KQ is the only reasonably move you can make.

At the end of a MTT, the table is 7 to 10 handed, the blinds are high relative to your stake, but you are not in any real danger jet. You’ve noticed that the table is a bit too loose, a bit too aggressive, and a bit too many hands get called all the way to show down.
This should not be an unusual situation for you.

Let’s make an example.
For the sake of simplicity, let’s just say that all the players involved have your stack covered – (note that no player is desperate to go all in)

You have 2.200 in chips, CO(one of the button) whit KQo in the hole, tree limpers, the blinds are 200/100.

What would you do?

You could fold. But good hands don’t come along that often. With 2.200 in chips and those blinds, you want to make a move ASAP.

You could call. Let’s say that the button and the blinds call – then the main pot is 1.400 and you have 2.000 left. If you don’t hit your hand you are done whit the hand. If you hit (say Kxx or Qxx) you won’t know if you have the best hand. Someone could be trapping from EP whit AA, KK, QQ, AK and even AQ or JJ just waiting for someone behind them to raise so they can go allin. If it is checked to you after the flop, it is dangerous to go allin because a 2.000 raise to a 1.400 pot will (usually) only be called whit a better hand.

A standard raise(3-5 * BB) is maybe the worst thing you could do. You have no chance of winning the pot before the flop, and you are pot committed whit a semi weak hand.

But let’s say you just raise to 400. Chances are that only the blinds and the limpers will call, you are not pot committed if some EP trapper goes allin preflop. If you don’t hit your hand it has only cost you 400 and if you hit, you have 1.800 in chips, the pot is 2.400 and you are 6-handed so someone is bound to call your allin raise.

You have ~30% chance to hit your hand on the flop, it cost you 400 if you miss or get re-raised preflop – and you will probably triple your whole stack if you hit.

How do you like that – please comment.

Martin Carlsson