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Old 05-15-2007, 06:06 AM
AsydRayne AsydRayne is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 305
Default Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.

#1: Usually fold. In order to call a $40 bet with our odds of about 19% we need to win over $200 when we hit, which means we need at least another $40 from the villain on the river. He may call an $40 bet when the club hits if he has a set or a striaght, but a lot of Aces are possible as well which will likely fold a club river.

#2: I think in general a high card is much better for firing a second barrel, but in this case "we have a gutshot" and likely overcards and i like a bet/fold to a big reraise. I'd consider a semibluff CRAI although I need to know the villain can fold TP in this situation. I think c/f is the best option besides b/f.

#3: fold. This is a nit with a clear set and we are drawing to a very non-obvious straight, but the spades will scare him away [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. So we have only 6 outs = 12% equity which means we need a pot of $366 to call this bet. That's $202 on the river and our stack only has $163 left in it. We need him to call a shove (or at least a bet of about $120) when the 5 or T of spades hits to make this call
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