Re: 99.99890581% chance that cheaters were operating on Absolute?
Here is my 2 cents.
If villain folds 4 hands out of 25, what are the odds that he is doing it exactly the 4 times somebody had JJ+?
4/25)*(3/24)*(2/23)*(1/22) = 1:12650
If we also factor in the likelihood that folding 4 hands of 25 is part of villains distribution of bet/fold patterns we would know the odds of this to happen by chance. The problem is that we don't kow his distribution of bet/fold patterns but it is likely pretty high (hes at approx 80-90% vpip), maybe 33%ish. That would give odds in the 50k range indicating that similar "coincidences" probably happens every day in online poker.
If there are other cues that would give villain a hint when he is upp against a big pair like Siegmund suggested the odds will fall drastically ofc.
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