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This is all full tilt with some stars, I can switch to the standard blue green format if you guys really want, though there's really no difference. No errors in the pokerEV, have checked multiple times.
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I'm not aware of any errors, but damn it looks suspicious.
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Can anyone tell me how unlikely this is?
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I ran it through a
binomial calculator(java). Assuming a full buyin for each all-in and average 50% equity(i.e. 0 expectation), the probability of running bad in 75 extra all-ins is around 0.00005, or 1 in 20,000 [n=1500, p=0.5, x is fewer than 675]. Include the effects of variable pot sizes and it's probably around 1 in 10,000 or so. In other words, a swing this big will happen to around 2-10 BBVers a year. If you have 60% average equity instead of 50 going in, the swing becomes more unlikely...about 1 in 30K vs 1 in 20K. This is just an estimate (you can't calculate it without doing a sim on your exact equities), but it's in the same ballpark of probability.
Assuming it's not an error, this is just [censored] brutal man.