View Single Post
  #9  
Old 10-14-2007, 02:39 AM
markuisis markuisis is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 731
Default Re: $100 NL QQ r/r PF

[ QUOTE ]
except hes going broke with any overpair and probably any decent spade combo, letting more cards come scares his overpairs and lets him hit his overvalued combo draw for a cheaper price

[/ QUOTE ]

i think his range of hands which call a shove is weighed more towards hands that beat us/are a coinflip for a couple of reasons:
1)much less likely to be 3betting 8s (almost never), nines, tens and even jacks (lots of ppl at 100nl on FT cold call with jacks) pf than he is ak, queens, kings and aces.

2)i think its very possible that nines, tens and even jacks with no spades get away from this flop if we shove whereas if the turn blanks they will likely commit themselves oop.

3) we give villain another chance to bluff the turn if he is in fact bluffing (our hand prob seems pretty weak given a flat call on such a scary board).

4) we get away from ak/aq with 1 spade for much cheaper than if we had shoved if the turn comes a spade (which i dont think many ppl at this limit would bluff at).

So, although there r some bad cards that can come - spades, ace or king, the fact that we r never making ak/aq with a spade fold that flop and that ak with no spade only has 6 outs and aq with no spade 3 outs, makes me like cold calling and getting it in on a blank turn or trying to check down a scary turn which i doubt he bluffs on too often.
Reply With Quote