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Old 11-30-2007, 01:45 AM
bottomset bottomset is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: middleset ftw
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Default Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ

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If he gave us some 3betting percentages, or blind steals, or looked at aggression factor postflop, or went to showdown percentage, I could give you a better idea of what to do, but since he doesnt I am going to assume a lot of times he could be getting played back at by even a 19/7

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I don't like to post postflop stats over a small simple since the things he does on the turn/river are over such a small sample that it doesn't mean much.

But villain is definitely capable of aggressive plays like check-raising a straight draw on the flop, he's not a station.

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seriously so many hands are over with before the turn

500hand sample he played maybe 75-90flops and maybe 20-30turns

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Sorry don't get where you guys got most of the things you were talking about.

I look at aggression factor postflop because it gives you another idea of how aggressive this guy is. If he is 19/7/1, it means he is unaggressive, which means he could be an unimaginative 19/7, where-as a 19/7/4 is one who can get fiesty. As for the w$sd, it means on a low flop you can c-r him and take down the pot because he is scared of sets a lot and doesn't see showdown much

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I was just estimating based on how the FR tables play(though its from my style of play perspective, not so much a 19/7 one)

he's probably seeing a higher % of flops and turns than more aggro players like myself or Sabr do for a couple reasons

we raise/reraise preflop more often which leads to more pots taken down preflop

on the flop we bet pretty often, and a ton of hands end right there

so take a 500hand sample, he VPIP'd 95times, raised 35 a fair number of those aren't going to make it to the flop, also likely sees a modest amount of free flops from the BB(probably around 60-70 hands in the BB in the stretch)

I think the estimate of 75-90 is fairly reasonable, and given how much variance there is on flop texture is a relatively meaningless sample

of those a ton are ending right there on the flop, I should dig in PT by cbets work very often at FR

so even if 45turns played, its still a tricky sample to analyze for his postflop tendencies because the variance is wild(if he's hitting 2x as many draws as expected its likely much higher than if he's missing 2x as many as expected)

now you get to the river, you might be at 10-15 hands that get there, sometimes the money is already in, so you don't get any info etc

its raw estimates, the turn # may have been a little low, and river is probably in the 8-25 range(often have runs of <15WSD, occasionally above 25WSD)

the main point is at 500hands VPIP and PFR still flucuate a fair bit, and as you shrink the sample even more(aka to times there is a flop, turn river etc) the original sample needs to be much larger to get a 500hand sample of those situations

100hand sample is wildly inaccurate for VPIP, its not going to suddengly be super accurate for flop play

what I think is much better is to look at specific hands and try and see how he plays certain hand strengths(flushdraws, weak TP, strong TP, monsters and try to develop an idea of his playing style that way)
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