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Old 11-20-2007, 03:55 PM
sc000t sc000t is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Kalamazoo
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Default Re: 10/25. Rate this bluff? What you think success rate is?

I don't understand how you don't like this bluff. I think its necessary if your calling that turn raise, which I think is speculative to say the least.

I assume the opponent has a weak Jack as well, or is getting tricky with a AJxx type hand. But most of the time he would just valuebet a rivered fullhouse and we can't check behind here with so little showdown value so I like the bluff a lot.

A weak Jxxx hand doesn't beat much of the range he'll put you on after you call the turn c/r. I think he has to assume you're calling it with some sort of draw, Jack, or maybe an overpair + draw type hand.

Once you bluff the river, the only hands that the opponent can now beat in his mind are missed flush draws that are bluffing or some sort of AKQx dd type hand that decided not to check behind.

All in all, I think if the opponent is calling with trips he has to put you on a bluff that missed some sort of draw and there really arn't many hands that it looks like Jxxx beats in his eyes.

Bid Dave D makes a good point about him being on tilt, but I still like the bluff after the opponent takes this weak of a line.

Your bet sizing on the river is obviously dependant on how you've played him in the past up until this hand. You probably could sell a strong hand by betting less (around $1300) and save yourself $300 because I think if hes calling a $1300 bet here, that looks a little stronger and less pushy, then hes always calling a $1600 bet here that looks more pushy and less like it wants value...if that makes sense.
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