[Sherman]

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Thanks for the post. I've been getting into situations like hand #14 and pushing or raising big only to get the money in and lose. I just need to keep telling myself to fold those big pairs against an equal or higher stack when I reach a target stack.

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Johnny,

The key isn't to "keep telling yourself not to get involved." The key is to do the math.

Gambling is all about expected value. In the long run, if you make plays with the highest expected value, you will win $. It is that simple.

So do this. Think before each hand is dealt, "What is the probability that I get the satellite seat if I don't play another hand?" If that probability is greater than 90%, you should probably fold. If that number is near 100%, there is absolutely no reason to play any hand at all.

Think about it. Say you are only 95% to get a satellite seat if you fold every hand. You pick up AA and the big stack to your right shoves. In the best case scenario he has AKo. In that situation you are 93% to win.

So now do the equity calculations in terms of real $. If you fold, you get the seat (say $100 package) 95 out of 100 times. Your expected value is $95.

Now let's say you call. When you win, you are getting the package 100% of the time and when you lose you lose the package. So 6.8% of the time you get nothing (6.8*0=$0) and 93.2% of the time you get the package (93.2*100=$93.20). So your expected value if you call is $93.20.

YOU LOSE $1.80 every time you make this call! And that is in the best case scenario that he has AKo against your AA. Many situations arise that are much worse than this (3:1,4:1, etc.).

From a strictly $EV perspective, it is very rare that you will want to play any hands at all if you are sure that you are over 90% to get a seat if you fold. There are just too few situations in which moving from 90% certainty to 100% certainty (while you risk losing 90%) is +EV. You are better off sitting on your 90% certainty.

One caveat however is that the blinds do come by. So at one point in an MTT you may "feel" 90% that you will make it. However, the short stacks may get lucky and the blinds may eat away at you. So make the estimation before EVERY hand that you play. At the beginning of each hand ask yourself how likely you are to get a seat if you fold from here on out. Because that number may change from hand to hand and you may have to come out of your "fold into the $" strategy if the probability dips too low.

Sherman