Re: NL200 3rd hand vs villain
I agree that calling doesn't look good .
You are really only re-raising to $168 otr which is not as bad as some people think . If he gets him to fold a better hand about 50% of the time , then re-raising is neutral EV .
If you put him on pocket 7's and up , a-j+ and k-q , then any pocket pair from 7's to k's may have a hard time calling . There are 7*6=42 pocket pair hands below the ace and 12*3 = 36 ace hands . There are an additional 12 hands that contain a k-q . So if we assume these pocket pairs all fold to your re-raise as well as k-q , then you'd win (42+12)/90=60% which makes the river raise positive EV .
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