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Old 06-06-2007, 02:50 AM
Nate tha\\\' Great Nate tha\\\' Great is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
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Default Re: Spalshing around at limit again

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once he 3bets the turn, it's puke time.

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no shot he has JT here, AA is pretty scary though.

I think the river doesnt actually matter even though its one of the sicker cards in the deck.

say an 8 or 9 peels off on the river and he leads. you guys arent actually just calling are you?

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A lot of players like to gambooool with JTs and will raise it up occasionally if there is any sort of multiway action. It's not as likely a possibility as AA but it can't be discounted entirely.

Anyway, 95% of his hand range is probably made up of JTs, AA, 99, 88 and AQ, in descending order of strength; there are three potential combos of each of these hands. QQ beats 9 of these combos and loses to 6, which is probably enough for a river raise even if you're in puke territory if 3-bet. You need to consider, however, whether he would have slowed down with any of these hands earlier. If I'm your opponent, for example, I doubt that I'd have 3-bet the turn with AQ, and I doubt that I've had led the river into your cap with 88 and possibly 99. So against me a raise would get you into a lot of trouble, unless I thought you gave too much action.
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