Re: Small Pair -
Well, given the range you've said for the villain, he's not laying down ace x, he might lay down 88-AA, excluding the 8's, 10's, and aces (but less likely given that he's tilting), he might lay down k 10 (again, less likely since he's tilting), and he more likely would lay down kj and kq (but yet again, tilting; my guess is he'll call). That looks like nearly 100% check the turn to me.
Plus, the fact that he's capable of leading out on the river when unimproved means the biggest mistake you made in this hand is preflop: I think you should fold preflop. 3 betting small pp's works especially well against tight opponents who see the 3 bet as 1010+ and fold JJ on a Axx board, where you can usually bet the flop and turn and win the pot. Given preflop play, you're forced to bet the flop, and now that he's called, the only reason for putting in a bet is fold equity and also for value when your opponent has jq, jk, or qk. We have 0 fold equity given opponent's image, and decreased value since our opponent might bluff us out on the river. I think you'd make more money by checking the turn, and letting your opponent bluff the river. J, Q, or K comes and it's insta fold on the river, diamond or no diamond.
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