Article from BP (Joe Sheehan) a couple of days ago on the possibility of ARod getting to 200 RBIs --
link (subscription only).
Some excerpts:
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In baseball, as in the stock market, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. A number of players each year are “on pace for” various achievements and records, only to fall off well before the chase gets serious. . .
. . . This is genuinely different, though. Batting fourth for the Yankees, Alex Rodriguez is in position to drive in more runs than anyone ever has before in part because he’s going to get more opportunities than any player in the game. Last year, Rodriguez led MLB with 534 runners on base when he came to the plate, and in 2005 he had 516, which ranked him second to teammate Hideki Matsui. So far this year, he’s batted with 72 runners on, or four per game, and he's on pace to have well over 600 runners on base for him. . .
This is what makes Rodriguez’s start so tantalizing. It’s not at all unrealistic to think that can continue; right now, the three Yankees ahead of him in the lineup are basically meeting their PECOTA-projected OBPs in the aggregate. While the team’s #8 and #9 slots may be a bit less likely to appear on base in front of Rodriguez than they were a year ago, the effect that has on his numbers should be small. Also, with Bobby Abreu’s home run power down from his peak, Rodriguez is less likely to find the bases cleared by a longball than he was last year, when he often batted behind Jason Giambi's 37-homer power. . .
. . . To have a realistic shot at 200 RBI, Rodriguez probably has to drive himself in 50 or more times on home runs, which seems within his reach. He’d have to bat with at least 550 runners on base, and preferably closer to 600. The record since 1957 is 573, set by Derek Bell in 1996. Nine players have batted with at least 550 runners on in a season. If Damon, Jeter and Abreu all sustain their current OBPs, and Abreu continues to be a 15-homer man rather than a 30-homer man, it’s not completely unrealistic to suggest that Rodriguez could set the record here. It would also help if Jason Giambi had a big enough year behind Rodriguez to make intentionally walking the latter an obviously poor choice. . .
. . . Remember, we’re talking about a record-setting performance here; it’s unlikely by definition. Alex Rodriguez, however, is in as good a position as any player has ever been to make a run at Hack Wilson’s RBI record.
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