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Old 10-18-2007, 05:44 PM
Hyperrrprank Hyperrrprank is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 313
Default Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)

I think that there is something to say about "saving a bet" by folding here. The consideration in my mind is how much that call really costs you. Even if we consider that our villian is highly unlikely to have anything but the flush, we're still only spending a fraction of a bet to go to showdown.

Consider the situation where we decide there is only a 1 in 25 chance we are best. Our cost to call is

-1(24)+11(1)/25

or -.5

We're actually only giving up half a bet on average with only a 4% chance of having the best hand.

That said of course if the read is super solid, as in this case where the villian would never play 2 pair (A8 for instance) like this folding seems like a reasonable play. Just be careful that you don't think of it as saving a full bet in your mind, or you'll be more likely to make marginal folds in similar situations.
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