[Slim Pickens]

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Can't we just do this (or part of it, anyway) as a math problem? Or, am I missing some bigger picture here?

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That's exactly where I'm going with this. I'm even going to make a graph. I make a lot of graphs.

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Shoving in all 9 cases is unexploitable.

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Yes. That was part of the point. It should be +$EV to shove all of these against any of the opponents I described, and pretty much all opponents in general.

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If there's a mathematical case to be made that it's more profitable to play it differently (as before, I think you might be able to make that case for players 1 and 3), can someone just run some postulated numbers and see what would happen?

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Ding ding ding!

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And, yes, I'm too busy/lazy to do it right now.

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No worries. I've actually got a really nice test case already done but it's 6-max, so I have to do it again for this one. I'll post it whenever I stop being busy/lazy.