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Old 11-22-2007, 05:04 PM
Rosslex Rosslex is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 35
Default Re: What do you think Urindanger had here?

it looks to me like 89, 9T or missed air like QT JT. For some reason I smell a Tx hand here. The turn check raise looks like a feeler bet to take control, probably with a draw...if livingon didn't make a play back here or showed any weakness tell it leaves urindanger free reign to pick up the pot on almost any river card, other than a board pair.

I believe he would play a strong flopped hand slightly differently. In saying that I am now more inclined to believe he spiked the J and is hoping to get paid off from a 9x, TT or worse. Knowing his opponent knows this river bet looks bluffy leads me to believe it is a value bet with QT or JT.

My point is he took control on the turn and a river pot bet was going to take it down on almost all river cards... any non board pair and it is his for the taking after livingon spewed turn.

In saying all that it is an excellent spot for livingon to feign turn weakness expecting to pick up the big river lead from urindanger. Gret spot to take a chance and let urindanger peel a draw and bluff river to him.

Either way the J is possibly the worst river card possble for livingon as it completes possible air pair and also of course the QT dbl gutshot just became the nuts.

If I was in urin's spot I would be putting livingon on a weakish hand like A9, J9, 78, 9T, possibly JJ, TT. I don't put him on QQ as think he plays the turn differently, folding or pushing AI. Considering his delay in calling turn I think he is weak and plan to pot bet river on any non board pair and expect to pick it up 90%+ of the time... at least until he picks me off...then I start inflating preflop and pushing him off on flop until he picks me off. Rinse and repeat until he picks me off when I have the nuts, hopefully. The basis being I believe he is uncomfortable playing big pots when put under consstant pressure.

Thoughts?
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