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Old 10-10-2007, 04:47 PM
PoorLawyer PoorLawyer is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Washington, DC
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Default Re: 10/20 Stud HI - 4th Street decision

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Stud High isn't my best game but I think that folding is best here. He is 2/3s likely to have trips (significant favourite) and 1/3 likely two pair (small favourite).

It is doubtful that he is drawing because of the three clubs are out and the fact that your ace raise and his jack call is likely to drive out the remaining opponents giving less pot odds to hit a flush. The cards that are out seem to indicate that he is not likely to be drawing a straight either.

Again stud high is not my best game but if anyone would like to say why I might be wrong - I am all ears....

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I like the thinking, but don't neccesarily agree with the 2/3 to 1/3 numbers. There are many hands he can have. It is 2 clubs out as the 3rd one is his, so I think it is reasonably likely for a flush draw to call 3rd, as well as any other big pair that isn't jacks.

If he does have jacks, he could be stringing me along with a small bet on 4th, but that is something you usually only see in lower limit games (of which I know he isn't a regular on, at least at this site). Most would bet big and just hope to be done with the hand whether they have trips or not.

Again, this is an unknown villain, but a lot of 10/20 and up players would raise a big pair here, either to get it heads up, or because they think I am light; they would not just call along and let others in.

I don't quite understand this statement: "It is doubtful that he is drawing because of the three clubs are out and the fact that your ace raise and his jack call is likely to drive out the remaining opponents giving less pot odds to hit a flush."
I would think it is the opposite and calling is exactly what you do with a flush draw - you want players in so you have odds to draw so just call to encourage others to come along.

All that being said, I agree I am either way behind or way ahead and one of us is very likely drawing to 4 outs (though I can make the bigger hand if we both hit). I just don't think I'm ready to fold this hand.
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