[BRDSR]

I was very high on the GB ML before doing a little more research and watching the moneyline at my book drop to +140. Now I'm thinking maybe I bet the under at 43.5

If we just took the number of points each team scores and gives up and did a simple mathematical computation, we would expect 43.25 points in this game. However, I expect that when an offenses strengths match up against a defenses strengths (as with GBs monster passing game and Denver's great passing defense), the advantage tends a little bit toward the defense. Likewise, GB is better at defending the rush while Denver's strength is on the ground (although the disparity is to a much lesser extent).

Anyone else like the u43.5 bet here? I'll definitely be betting this game in some way because I've got a little itch tonight, but it'll probably be for less than a unit. Just dont' feel too strong anywhere right now.

Edit: Javon Walker is out for the Broncos and Henry is questionable, which leans to the under. However, I think the Broncos have a lot of similarly talented players on offense and this isn't as big a deal as it might look. On the other hand, Champ Bailey is also questionable (quad), and he's a big part of the Broncos' great pass defense. Anyone know more than the basic injury report?