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Old 11-30-2007, 12:45 PM
kimchi kimchi is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: FU minbet
Posts: 1,246
Default Re: A TRADABLE CONCEPT?

That looks like a good set-up for a longer term system. I'll have a proper look at your screen tomorrow when I have more time.

I've just had a look at the chart for the first stock you mentioned: PDA




If I understand it right, you are buying short-term value in a longer-term uptrend. Maybe a little similar to what I've been working on above - but using a much longer timeframe.

I think the exits on longer term systems pretty much decide whether they are workable or not. They are so difficult to get right and I think giving up some EV is sometimes worth making them easier to trade.

[ QUOTE ]
he risk characteristics are good because a tight stop can be placed very close to entry.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm wondering about your entry here. I always think it's best to find a long entry above the market with the intention of getting stopped in as/if the market moves in your expected direction. If the market retreats and fails to trigger your buy-stop, then this stop is simply lowered to the new latest high. This allows for tight stops, depending upon the timeframe you're using. I've highlighted a possible placing for a buy stop - just above the last high. A stop loss can be placed just under the last bar's low or under a low of previous bars depending on how long-term you want to trade this market. Obviously longer term stops will mean higher risk trades but potentially higher rewards if you give the stock a suitably wider trailing stop or some other looser exit.

Using stop loss 1 ($45.50) and assuming an entry around $49, then we have $3.50 per share initial risk. Quite high, but not for a volatile stock like this. I like to incorporate average true range (ATR) into calculation of stop placement as a temporary contraction in volatility can otherwise mean placing relatively illogical stops.

I've also highlighted another interesting bar I'm currently trying to work into another system. Pin bars often signal reversals in the opposite direction of 'Pinocchio's nose' and this stock shows an excellent example of that on 16th August.
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