Re: OESD in 3bet pot
Im going to skip preflop, since everyone has already commented on that. This may be a lengthy post, I dont know, but I am going to go somewhat deep. Atleast for me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I can just now say that this play isnt as bad as it sounds from some of the posters. It may actually be the best line to use, according to villains hand range.
I put villain in this hand on TT+, AQo+ AQs+. This may be a bit tight, but he hasnt 3-betted earlier preflop and other than that, I have nothing to go for. So I'll use that range. Atleast it will get me the result for a push vs a tight 3 betting range whereas it will be even better if its EV vs a much more looser range.
TT+, that leaves 6+6+6+6+3 combinations. These will all call our all in. Depending on villain, he may fold TT and maybe even JJ occasionally, but I will count it as he wont ever do that. So far, 27 combinations will call us.
And AQo+ leaves us with 18 combos (I take one ace away since we have A4.) He will all fold these. AQs+ is 6 combos, whereas 2 combos will have a flush draw = never folding.
So, if I havent messed up anywhere, 29 combos will call, and 22 will fold.
22 times we will win 18.75$
29 times we will get called, and vs that range, we will win 29.53% times. So we will on average lose 21,27$ when getting called if we push all in (note that our push is only for 44,25 since that is all he has in his stack and not for 46,55. Almost always irrelevant but I was just pointing it out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Doing the math, 29 times, we will lose 21,27$, 22 times we will win 18,75 equals -204,33$/51=-4.01$
Turns out this move isnt as profitable as I first thought. I may have used his hand range to be tight... Would be easier if I was the one playing!!! If I put in AJo+ AJs+ this seems like a clear fold with a somewhat nice EV$.... around 1,82$. So my new thoughts are this, fold preflop, but since you call, push if you think his range is looser than my first range, and just check/fold if he is tighter or as tight as my range.
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