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Old 11-30-2007, 12:54 PM
fmxda fmxda is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: AA
Posts: 3,757
Default Re: The Revolution - Game Thread

There is a greater than 50% chance that tarheel is not the president

P(drzen is telling the truth)*P(body double)

P(body double) is .5, drzen's claim is believable coming from someone with no pressure, but there is a nonzero probability he is faking to protect books or something.

Furthermore if tarheel is the president the body double will die in his place --> we should lynch him + any village nightkill(s) should target him tonight.
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