Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
Ok, I can test the calculation:
How many combinations do he hold?
KK............2
QQ............6
JJ............6
TT............3
88............3
44............3
AKs-FD............1
AQs-FD............1
=25
How many combinations do he fold if i push?
JJ............6
TT............3
AKs-FD............1
AQs-FD............1
=11
How often do he fold?
11/25 = 44% of the time
What does i win if he folds?
Pot+Bet+Raise = 16,25
What is the fold EV?
$16,25*44% = 7,15
What is my Equity if he calls?
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.114% 46.11% 00.00% 7761 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 53.886% 53.89% 00.00% 9069 0.00 { KcKd, KcKh, QQ, TT, 88, 44 }
What do I win if he calls?
My cbet + pot + his stack = 55,25
The EV call(win)?
(1-Fold%)*55,25*0,46 = 0,56*55,25*0,46 = 14
What do i loose if he calls?
His stack - my cbet = 45
The EV call(loose)?
(1-Fold%)*45*0,54 = 0,56*45*0,54 = -13
Total EV:
EV Fold + EV Call(win) + EV Call(loose) = 7,15 + 14 - 13 = +8,15
It was close. I understand what the difference was now. I used the % number at the hold'em distribution window at pokerstove instead of counting combinations.
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