Re: Boxing Weekend of 10/5 - 10/7: Barreria v. Pacquiao
I'm surprised you guys like MAB here. I expect another one-sided beating. Pacquiao is a better fighter now than he was in their first bout.
Also, I don't consider Barrera to be the bigger man. It's true that Pacquiao has fought as low as 106 (!), but he was only 16 years old at the time. He has really filled out, and he looks good at 130.
In his third fight with Morales (Nov 06), he weighed 144 lbs on fight night after weighing in at 129. Barrera weighed 139 on fight night his last time out. Pacquiao is bigger and stronger, and that is one of the keys to the fight for me.
Another key is punching power. Barrera has't shown any power at this weight. Pacman's power has definitely come up with him to 130. Pacman can take Barrera's best punch. Barrera can not take Pacquiao's best shots.
Also key is that Manny is the fresher fighter. He is younger, faster and stronger. He will set an amazing pace, and won't slow down even if he is way ahead late. I could see Barrera possibly keeping it respectable early, but I don't see how he could go a hard 12 rounds with Manny. I expect him to fade down the stretch. Manny never lets up, and he has a great killer instinct, so he has a great chance for a stoppage.
I don't think Barrera can hurt Pacquiao. If he pulls out a win, it will have to be through outboxing Manny. I don't see that happening though. Pacman has improved his fundamentals since that first fight, and uses his right hand a lot better now. It's tough to beat him by counterpunching.
Sure, Barrera will hit him with counterpunches, but Manny will walk right through them. He's like a buzzsaw - he hits so hard, his hands are very fast and he sets a furious pace. At this stage in Barrera's career, I don't think he can stand up to this kind of pressure. That's not to say I definitely think he is going to get knocked out, but he will lose the latter stages of the fight by a wide margin (if he survives).
Bets I like:
Pacquiao -285 and -290 (Sportsbook and Bodog respectively, arb-able on 5Dimes, where MAB is +300)
Pacquiao -17.5 pts -150 (KO is a winner) on 5Dimes
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