Re: YARPT
[ QUOTE ]
Not sure I understand how the prices are all set independently yet they can all so nearly add up to 100, unless the market is FREAKING AWESOME, which I know it is, but come on. WTF?
[/ QUOTE ]
I think the market is freaking awesome. If the probabilities didn't add up to 100%, one possible explanation is that the remainder represents "the field" that isn't listed. However, since we're only two months from Iowa, just about every conceivable candidate is listed. If we assume that the nominees will be one of the people listed and the market were off by more than a couple percent, you could book a no risk win by just betting everyone to lose.
|