Re: When To Give Up?
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So if the odds of hitting are say 100,000,000 to 1 and the jackpot is over $100,000,000 you have a +EV on a $1 ticket.
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You're missing one factor. If the odds are 100M-1 and the JP stays at $100M, yet 500M tickets are sold the chances of duplicate winners takes your EV way down...
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Yes, I did miss this! So this is what makes a progressive lottery different from a progressive slot machine where there can be a a +EV. Since only one person can hit the slot machine at one time.
I though I read something in a Wong book about professional gamblers playing slots when the jackpot reaches a certain amount and that's where I got the lottery idea. But your point about multiple winners changes everything.
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