Thread: odds for starters in 2-7TD View Single Post
#2
09-23-2007, 01:25 AM
 MarkGritter Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Eagan, MN Posts: 1,376
Re: odds for starters in 2-7TD

I worked these out a long time ago but I can't find anywhere I've already posted them. Maybe that 2-7 thread in the Sklansky forum?

For a pat 5-card hand there are 1020 ways it can be made from the four suits. This gives them each probability 1020/52C5 = 0.000392465. So over the 18 or so (pat 8 or better) that's a total of 0.7%.

There are 7680 ways to make a 1-card draw (like 7432x but you need to count x = one of 2347 as well.) So, 0.002955 each, and I count about 26 of them (including hands like 8763 but not bad starters like 7543) which makes 7.7% total.

There are 25200 ways to make a 2-card draw (432xx, counting all pair/trips combinations.) That makes them 0.0096962 each. How many you want to add up is a matter of some dispute. If you keep rough starters like 256 but not any 8 worse than 258 it works out to 12.6%.