Re: Folding the nuts?
Don't get me wrong, I could never fold here, but I was curious and ran some simulations that seem to determine that if he's 100% sure that at least one of them has the same straight and the other has a set or a flush draw, then it's becomes very marginal. Give the flush draw a pair and the other straight a backdoor flush draw and suddenly we're not getting the right pot odds anymore.
Hand -------- Pot Equity
7h4s5d6d -- 29.64%
4c6c** ------ 29.12%
Ah5h** ----- 41.24%
Edit: Actually I guess those simulations aren't totally reliable since the *s could be 4s and 6s and hearts and all that. Here we go, better example. His equity rises slightly but still isn't enough.
Hand -------- Pot Equity
7h4s5d6d - 31.23%
4c6cKsQd -- 28.23%
Ah5hJdTs -- 40.54%
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