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IMO your logics is very flawed here.

By your logics: Russia has an arcenal to kill all the people in USA, if USA strike first and destroy all the nuclear bombs in Russia only about 1 millon people in Russia will get killed. After this attack the anti-missile defence will stop what is left with probability of 90%, in 20% cases one missile will get to the USA killing 2 millon people. So if there is 1/250= 0.5% that the russians can launch an attack, then USA should strike first. 0.5% is really small, isn't it?
No wonder that they don't believe all the talk that the target of anti-missile defence is Iran. (Assuming that politicians in USA used a similar logics, when attacking Iraq.)


May be you should take another side into equation, like what Iraq would gain by launching an attack on USA, and what it would lose? Then your 2% estimation becomes HUGE.