[sh58]

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bet the turn. as played, i think you have to call as you played it so weak up to now

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I cant stand these statements - provide a range and plzzzz dont tell me that he ever ever has AJ here. If hes value betting we r definitely behind.


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i assume that you're thinking is that such a large bet is either the nuts or air?

If Villain is good, then fold. Unless you think Villain is good enough to turn a pair into a bluff, but even then would he really shove...wouldn't he just make a 3/4-pot size bet?

If Villain is bad, then you still need to suggest a hand that is bluffing the river...86?

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if villain is pretty good and therefore capable of bluff overbetting with a missed straight draw then id call fwiw. I dont think he is though since he should probably be shoving the flop with most of his draws and almost certainly betting the turn with them unless hero is a habitual turn trapper.

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if i were villain i would suspect he had something like QQ, JJ or TT that has showdown value, or nothing. i wouldn't put him on an ace. indeed this is the reason nielsio checked behind imo (if it was for any other reason, then it is awful). so i would pretty much be betting my whole range that has no showdown value here.

of course villain could also be valuebetting with a set, 2 pair, a flush, or w/e. but i think we are good enough to call