Re: Value bet flushy river w/set?
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i'm all for the c/c route. i don't want to fold this hand and villian will bluff at this card a lot.
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What exactly would he be bluffing with?
Do people think about hand ranges before saying "check to induce bluff?"
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A nine could have stuck around and maybe a reluctant ten who called turn hoping we were bluffing the ace (which is never calling the river) and two pair or better raises flop so to maybe call with a hand we have beat he would have to have spiked aces up (and not have raised turn...) or queens up and is willing to call a river shove on that board - pretty optimistic. I honestly think all plays r very close as he has 3 hands IMO, a nine, maybe aces up or maayybe queens up or a flush draw, seeing as both aces up and queens up r unlikely (both to have been spiked and in flat calling aces up on turn) and that a flush draw is a much bigger part of his range, I c/f, I dont expect villain to shove a busted nine too too often with less than a psb left (btw thats what is induced to shove). Also, if i am going for value I prefer betting smaller and reluctantly calling a shove because a shove is almost always a flush and a smaller bet could be a thin value bet with a weaker two pair than a10, but i still prefer c/f, doubt i would have in the moment though. O ya, and def bet more on flop (10) and turn (25-26)
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