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Old 11-27-2007, 03:28 AM
ChrisV ChrisV is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Adelaide, Australia
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Default Re: I don\'t understand blackjack (longish)

It depends what kind of game he was playing (i.e. single deck or shoe, favourable or unfavourable rules). While there are some games where you can get it, 0.05% is an extremely low house edge to claim. The house edge of my local game is over 0.6%, so over $1,000 worth of betting he would lose more like $60 in that game.

The claim that it's all about EV is wrong. I would not bet my life savings on a bet which was +$1 in expectation. It can be rational to pass up EV if your risk of ruin is too high. Risk of ruin is a function of two things - bet size and bet frequency. $1,000 could represent quite a lot of money to your friend - for instance, if his net wealth were $10,000 - but if he only makes the bet once, he is right that it's all about EV, since his risk of ruin is still zero. If he proposes to bet $1,000 50 times though, that's a different thing entirely. So it depends whether $1,000 is a lot to your friend and whether he does this sort of thing very often.
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