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Old 11-20-2007, 05:16 PM
cmyr cmyr is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: boredomed
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Default Re: 10/25. Rate this bluff? What you think success rate is?

I think villian could have any 4 here... a second barrel once the board pairs isn't an unusual play or anything. His lead, to me, makes it more likely he has a weak draw then a weak made hand, although they're both possible.

Your turn call is fine, since you're probably ahead. Once the Ace comes, I think his range narrows to a missed draw that's given up and is folding to anything, a weak ace that now wants to see the river, broadway that wants to see a river, or a monster that's hoping you've got enough of this to put in a bet.


As far as your range, it seems unlikely you've got two pair or a set on the flop, although you know this better then I do.

You may have broadway. You may have an overpair, one of just rivered the nuts. You may a low wrap that's missed.



I think what's important is what villian has led before, and how often he'd double barrel with not much. The hand you want to fold that you can reasonably expect to is a weak ace, and i'm not sure how much of his range that is.
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