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llabb - would you share your record thus far this year in NBA. I'm amazed that the number of games you take ...

thx

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Yes, I make a ton of plays, as I am comfortable betting even small edges (by my perceptions). I have posted for the last couple years here, 56% last season (06-07), 57% the previous playoffs (05-06), and 55% the previous season (05-06). Because I take a lot of games with small edges, there is greater variance with my results. I have seen fluctuations between 48% and 63% during most seasons, but it has worked out well so far.

I realize that most people would say that I take far too many plays, and perhaps I do, but it's more profitable to take the small 53% plays as well and end up averaging 57% for the season rather than sitting back with only a few plays and simply coasting to 61% on the soft lines. Many say that it is tough to beat the NBA taking tons of games, but I believe otherwise. I have seen another poster on another forum who picks every single game, both the side and the total, and is 57% over 207 games this season. I don't go quite that far yet, but I believe that it is very doable.

This season, I started off horribly for the first week, and have since adjusted, improving each week. Weekly results are:

Week 1: 12-15, -5.42u
Week 2: 17-14, +0.23u
Week 3: 13-8, +2.90u
Week 4: 13-8, +4.87u

I suffered through some early beats where the larger unit plays lost, and am now being more careful about varying my unit size. Flat betting would have been more profitable for me so far, although I believe that it is just variance on a few plays. I am starting to see 2H plays better, although I am not always around during those times. All results so far this season below.

All Sides and Totals: 55-45, +2.58u

Sides: 22-19, -1.18u
Totals: 10-10, -0.11u
1H Sides: 2-4, -2.31u
2H Sides: 8-5, +1.73u
2H Totals: 10-7, +1.45u
Team Totals: 3-0, +3.00u
Player Props: 0-2, -2.30u
Donk Teasers: 1-5, -3.85u

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Thanks much for sharing. Interesting insights on your part... I will definitely keep those elements in mind as I begin to bet the NBA on a regular basis.

Willing to share any of the trends you see with the 2H plays?

The below seem like they may be good plays - but it is pure speculation on my part; pts are just guesses -
1- If favorite is winning at halftime by > 10 pts -> bet dog 2H
2 - If dog is up > 10pts at half -> bet favorite 2H
3 - If lead by either team is < 5 -> bet favorite 2H

2H Totals -

Bet under if 1H goes over? vice versa
Bet over if 1H goes over / vice versa

I'll have to test these hypotheses myself - but I thought I would ask if you have observed any of aforementioned to be true/false...

Thanks.